SIR - Covid-19 Prediction Model

SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model to estimate the peak while a data-driven approach based on past outbreaks is used to predict the decline of the epidemic.

On 09-Sep-2021, India reported 24042 new cases and 263 new deaths. The number of active cases is 386793. Based on a 7-day average, this region reported a maximum of 392331 cases on 04-May-2021, while a maximum of 4190 deaths occured on 19-May-2021. The daily count of infections has reduced by 91.4 % compared to its value at its peak. The active case has also gone down by 89.6 % from its peak value of 3715658 on date 10-May-2021. The current case fatality rate based on average daily data is 0.9 %.
According to the model, the daily cases are currently in decline phase. The effective reproduction number based on the latest data is 1.0. With the current decay rate, India is expected to have about 65 daily cases in two weeks.
India conducted 1874150 tests on 09-Sep-2021. The test positivity rate (TPR) is 2.2 %. World Health Organization (WHO) recommends TPR to be lower than 5 % for at least two weeks before the outbreak can be considered as under control. Low TPR value indicates that the interventions are expected to be eased soon. In the second wave, a total of 22270322 has been reported in India, along with 286456 deaths. However, the current trend indicates that the situation is improving. People are advised to strictly follow COVID protocols and guidelines even after the interventions are eased in order to avoid any fresh wave of infections (third wave).