SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model to estimate the peak while a data-driven approach based on past outbreaks is used to predict the decline of the epidemic.
Covid-19 Related Papers
Ranjan, A. Sharma, and M. K. Verma, Characterization of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in India, (2021). medrxiv, Under production in “Current Science” journal[Covered in media TV18Livemint etc.]
Sharma, S. Sapkal, and M. K. Verma, Universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 and its usage for forecasting, (2020). PDF
K. Verma, A. Ali, and S. Chatterjee, COVID‐19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve, Trans Indian Natl. Acad. Eng., 5, 1 (2020) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41403-020-00104-y. PDF
Chatterjee, A. Asad, B. Shayak, S. Bhattacharya, S. Alam, and M. K. Verma, Evolution of COVID-19 pandemic: Power-law growth and saturation, JISA, 55, 1-31 (2020). PDF
Rajesh Ranjan.Temporal Dynamics of COVID-19 Outbreak and Future Projections: A Data-driven Approach. Transactions of Indian National Academy of Engineering (2020), pp.1-7. DOI:1007/s41403-020-00112-y
Rajesh Ranjan. COVID-19 Spread in India: Dynamics, Modeling, and Future Projections. Journal of Indian Statistical Association (2020) 58. pp. 47-65.Link
Rajesh Ranjan. Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models. medRxiv, 2020. DOI:1101/2020.04.02.20051466
Rajesh Ranjan. Estimating the Final Epidemic Size for COVID-19 Outbreak using Improved Epidemiological Models. medRxiv, 2020. DOI:1101/2020.04.12.20061002