Improved SIR - Covid-19 Prediction Model
SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model to estimate the peak while a data-driven approach based on past outbreaks is used to predict the decline of the epidemic.
May 24, 2021
Profs. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, along with their team at #IITKanpur, are working to provide model forecasts up to district-wise granularity. They have launched a website (https://covid19-forecast.org ) for updated daily forecasts.
May 09, 2021
Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, IIT Kanpur
India is overwhelmed by the second wave with more than 37 lacs active cases. Because of over-stretched healthcare systems, the case fatality rate (CFR) has also increased from about 0.7% in February to about 1%. However, it is still lower than several other countries including Brazil, Russia, and France. We have used Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model along with a data-driven decay rate to predict the future course of the pandemic.
Our observations are as given below. Our daily-case forecasts using a model are shown as red curves in the figures. The shaded regions are the uncertainties in the predictions.
April 18, 2021
Rajesh Ranjan, Aryan Sharma, and Mahendra Verma, IIT Kanpur
Strong second wave of COVID-19 is creating a havoc in the country. As on 17th April, the infection count is 2.66 lacs, while the death count is about 1500. Although the vaccination drive is expanded gradually to include all age groups, the spread of the highly infectious new mutant of the pathogen (B.1.617 lineage, UK and SA variants) poses a major health emergency.
We have analyzed the data up to 15th April 2021 and observed dangerous trends. See https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350954974_Characterization_of_the_Second_Wave_of_COVID-19_in_India Our key findings are listed below:
The above observations suggest that the flattening of the second wave requires strong administrative intervention and people’s participation.
Figure 1: Variations in daily counts (incidences) and Rt in most-impacted states
Figure 2: Comparison of first and second wave
Table 1: Statewise characterization of second wave as on April 15, 2021.
Test Positivity Rate (TPR), Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Rt, Vaccinations per 100 persons (at least one dose)
March 27, 2021
Rajesh Ranjan, Aryan Sharma, and Mahendra Verma; IIT Kanpur
India is exhibiting signs of a second wave of COVID-19 as already seen in the United States and several other European countries including France and the United Kingdom. Although the vaccination drive is expanded gradually to include all age groups, the emergence of several new mutants of the pathogen, which are highly transmissible, poses a health emergency situation. We have plotted the variation in basic Reproduction number, R, with time to understand the emerging dynamics of COVID-19 spread in key states and India as a whole.